Kakcophony

noun - a harsh, discordant mixture of sounds made by politicians at election time

The oftentimes ridiculous bleating of politicians prompted my wife to ask “Does anything good ever come out of politics?” Offhand, I couldn’t think of anything, so it was one of those very rare occasions, according to her, where I was left speechless.

Unsurprisingly, political noise levels are again rising rapidly, and will no doubt reach a crescendo in December this year when we will know who is to be South Africa’s next president. This alone is enough incentive for me to rediscover my voice.

While there are a good number of people hoping, and some actually believing, that we will soon see an end to ANC misrule, a look at previous election results indicates that they will almost certainly retain a majority of seats in Parliament in 2019.

The hope and belief that change is imminent stems from a perception that opposition parties, the DA and EFF in particular, are rapidly gaining support, while the ANC is rapidly losing support.

Using voter turnout numbers for 2014 National and 2016 Local Government elections as the benchmark for today’s optimism, we are told that:

• DA support increased from 21.9% in the 2014 National elections, to 26.8% just two years later in the Local Government elections.
•  The EFF debuted in 2014 with an initial 6.3% following, rising to 8.1% in 2016.
•  ANC support on the other hand dropped from 61.3% in the 2014 to 53.3% in 2016, so they are now on the brink of losing their majority in 2019.

The facts of the matter are that when trumpeting electoral “gains” and “losses”, politicians and mainstream media are misdirecting us.

With the exception of a recent and very eloquent report written by Gareth van Onselen that touches on this subject, I claim it is misdirection because neither politicians, nor the majority of mainstream media, make reference to the electoral anomaly of voter turnout differences between the National/Provincial elections, and Local Government elections. 

To understand this particular dynamic of our flawed electoral system, take a look at voting statistics since the advent of our democracy.

Apart from 1994, where the excitement of the majority being able to vote for the first time ensured a 99% turnout of registered voters, all other alternating elections have settled into much the same pattern.

  NATIONAL/PROVINCIAL                                                                                   LOCAL GOV.

Year                Registered                          Turnout                % Year                    Registered                          Turnout                 % 1994 19 726 610 19 533 498 99.0% 1995/6 17 782 694 8 675 567 48.8% 1999 18 172 751 16 228 462 89.3% 2000 18 511 975 8 752 223 47.3% 2004 20 674 926 15 863 558 76.7% 2006 21 054 957 9 857 074 46.8% 2009 23 181 997 17 919 966 77.3% 2011 23 139 142 13 353 987 57.7% 2014 25 388 082 18 654 772 73.5% 2016 26 333 353 14 959 033 56.8% The first high-level pattern is very obvious – fewer people bother to vote in Local Government elections than in National/Provincial elections. This reflects in the sorry state of Local Government where corruption, financial mismanagement, and political ineptitude are spawned by a systemic lack of direct political accountability. The second noticeable pattern is that voter turnout rises, albeit slightly, when a change of National President is involved. Thabo Mbeki’s first National election had a still-healthy 89.3% turnout that declined to 76.7% for his second term. Similarly, but less dramatically, an increase to 77.3% turnout for Jacob Zuma the first time around, dropped to 73.5% for his second term. If they choose wisely, a new ANC presidential candidate for 2019 hints at an uptick in turnout, which is more advantageous to the ANC than to the opposition. The third, perhaps less obvious but more alarming pattern, is that the number of registered voters failing to vote in National elections (26.5% in 2014) has become the fastest growing “political” sector in South Africa. The registered voter versus turnout anomaly cannot be ignored when evaluating so-called political “gains” because, as is demonstrated below, genuine reflections of political party performance can only be in comparison to the number of registered voters[1], not voter turnout. If party support is recalculated using the number of registered voters as the benchmark. DA support stood at 16.1% of registered voters in 2014, declining to 15.2% in 2016; EFF support peaked at 4.6% in both elections; and Support for the ANC dropped from 45% (already a minority government?) in 2014 to 30.3% in 2016. Relative to the number of registered voters, I believe the EFF will always be, at best, a 5% fringe party.  I also believe that in its present form the DA is approaching its support ceiling. Even if I am only half-right, this means that the current and very real threat to the ANC does not come from the opposition, but rather from those who choose not to vote. These people also pose the most significant threat to the future direction of democracy in South Africa. If the politically moderate population loses faith with our present version of democracy and stops voting, it opens the door for all sorts of fringe elements to take the gap with populist, divisive, and perhaps even violent rhetoric. As their grip on power slips further, we can also confidently anticipate an escalation in the already highly populist rhetoric coming out of Lethuli House which, if it hasn’t occurred to you yet, will take their “ideology” ever closer to that of the EFF. With this in mind, we need to rid ourselves of the notion that coalition governance will automatically include the DA as the controlling partner. The closer ANC and EFF ideologies become, the more likely it is that the ANC will be the coalition partner of choice for the EFF. I believe that by standing in opposition to the ANC at local government level, the EFF has merely fired a warning shot across the bow of the ANC, to remind them of who might be holding the high cards in the far more important 2019 National/Provincial elections. In addition, can anyone really see Julius Malema turning down the opportunity to wield significant influence over the ANC as “Kingmaker”, while at the same time being given ANC-style access to state resources? Just asking..... The Positive Revolution[2] What we really need is a positive political revolution. A revolution that will bring enforceable political accountability, not just pay lip-service to it. A revolution that places limits on the executive powers of the single individual occupying the Office of the State President. A positive revolution where it will no longer be enough for politicians to gain points through attack or being negative. A positive revolution that will bring people back to the polling stations because their vote really does count. We have a wonderful, world-renowned Constitution, but that doesn’t mean that we should not be looking at ways to further improve it.    It is in this context that I have previously called for a civil society-led review of the political dispensation contained in the Constitution, nothing more. The current dispensation assumes ethical leadership and political self-policing, so contains no provision to enforce accountability when politicians, particularly senior politicians, fail to live up to their oath of office. Nkandlagate, Nenegate, and the State of Capture report by the Public Protector alone, provide more than enough motivation for us to improve our Constitution to correct this oversight. Whether or not we expect much to change politically after the 2019 National elections, it is still imperative that we rethink the rules under which politicians are allowed to operate. We must have enforceable accountability, with swift and meaningful retribution for any breach of trust. There are so many civil organisations out there that can, and should be driving this initiative. Will any of them have the courage to step up to the plate?   It will be a hard road to walk, but as Madiba said “It is always impossible until it is done” [1] There are also large numbers of voting age people who have not even bothered to register, which would make the picture even bleaker. [2] When the positive revolution takes hold it will no longer be enough for politicians to gain points through attack or being negative. Politicians will be expected to be constructive. (The Positive Revolution – Edward De Bono)

Annus Politica Insania – The Year of Political Insanity

Forgive the Latin, but we were subjected to so many televised court cases in 2016 that it has almost become our 12^th official language by default; although there is an upside to using this ancient language as many things sound so much better in Latin than they do in English. For example: using nos erant semper in stercore erat tantum in profundum, quod varia[1] to describe 2016 sounds more refined than its English equivalent of, we were always in the shit, it was only the depth that varied.

I am not going to rehash all last year’s South African stories, events and court judgements, or the Brexit and Trump election results, as these subjects remain dissected and reported upon ad nauseam. Putting them all together in one sentence, though, does reinforce the point that 2016 was a year of worldwide political insanity.

What we do need to urgently address in 2017 is how our own country has contrived to get into such a parlous state, together with what can and must be done to correct the inherent systemic imbalances.

I have already expressed a view on social media platforms that our much vaunted Constitution can be compared to a New Year’s resolution – full of good intentions, but when it really matters no ultimate consequences for breach.  This is borne out by the fact that Jacob Zuma remains at the helm, even after he has breached the Constitution in blatant and unrepentant contravention of his oath of office. His latest alleged transgression, relating to the establishment of a “rogue” trade union (WAU) should, if proven, be the final straw. But then again we know he has an uncanny instinct for survival.

Nevertheless, there are a growing number of interfaith and civil organisations such as Save South Africa, who are loudly calling for him to step down or be removed.  ANC stalwarts and many MK Veterans are also calling for leadership change, yet they are all missing a very important point.

Replacing one leader with another is merely treating a symptom rather than addressing the root cause of the problem. It would simply be a case of rex mortuus est, vivat rex “The king is dead, long live the king”.

The fact of the matter is that the Constitution grants extremely wide-ranging executive powers to the President. In this, the Constitution naively assumes that the incumbent has purity of heart and genuine integrity.  While generally true of Nelson Mandela, it is clear that the present incumbent is noticeably lacking in these qualities, and there is no guarantee that his successor will be any different.

Treat the cause, not the symptom

I therefore have no doubt that the Constitution itself is at the heart of the problem. The constitutional pillars relating to equality, dignity, separation of powers, and fundamental human rights are admirable. But the incorporated political dispensation is a legislative defect that enables manipulative and/or corrupt politicians to undermine these pillars.

Governance at all levels, once we have voted, is at the whim of political party leaders with no further accountability to the electorate.  And whilst it is always easiest to point the cadre deployment/patronage finger at the ANC, the DA and EFF are also guilty of governance by diktat.

For example, in November 2016 the DA suspended five City of Cape Town councillors for supposedly ignoring a directive to vote for the leadership’s preferred candidate for chairperson of the Kraaifontein sub-council; and the EFF are facing a court case from a former MP whom they expelled for refusing to be redeployed from a position as an MP in the National Council of Provinces, to that of proportional representative councillor in Vhembe District Council.  And these are not, as you might hope, isolated incidents.

It is the unaccountability of omnipotent party leaders, and their deployed cadres, which fosters the prevailing attitude of privilege and arrogance that is so common among our current crop of politicians.

It is also important to recognise that our ability to vote every five years is not, on its own, proof of democratic governance. Only when there is full and enforceable political accountability for the duration between elections can we make that claim.

I strongly believe that we need to urgently launch a civil-society-led formal review our Constitution - call it CODESA 2 for want of a better descriptor, its primary objectives being: the elimination of inherent accountability defects in our electoral system; the definition of appropriate and enforceable consequences for politicians (at all levels of government) who breach their oath of office; and the definition of more practical limits on the executive powers of the President.

Our biggest challenge in this regard is that politicians like the system just the way it is, and they are the only ones with power to make the changes we need them to make.

Even so, 2017 must be dedicated to making full and effective accountability to the people a political reality. We have the organisations and people to drive this initiative if they recognise the Constitutional imperative, and are willing to work together. Organisations such as Save South Africa; The Helen Suzman Foundation; Freedom Under Law; OUTA; and people such as retired Constitutional Court Justice Zak Jacoob immediately come to mind. 

The icing on this particular cake would be if Thuli Madonsela could also be persuaded to add her considerable intellect and constitutional experience to the cause. After all, while it is primarily about political power, any resulting recommended Constitutional amendments will also significantly enhance social justice objectives.

Are they, or others, prepared to grasp this nettle before conniving politicians trade enough votes to make arbitrary changes that suit only themselves?  Think of potential coalitions, if not in 2019, most probably in 2024, before you say that it can’t happen.

For those willing to take on the challenge, it will most certainly be a hard road to walk, but as Madiba said “It is always impossible until it is done”.

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[1] Someone with a “colonial” education may find fault with this, grammatically or otherwise - all suggestions/corrections appreciated!