In my opinion, Malusi Gigaba’s
maiden Mid-term Budget Policy speech was primarily geared towards protecting
his personal political future. He laid out in no uncertain terms the
depressingly ugly state of our economy, then deferred or postponed taking any
long-term remedial action until February 2018. Why?
Put yourself in his very
expensive shoes for a moment, and consider how else could he have approached
the subject when he can’t be sure who his boss will be in February 2018? His best option for self-preservation was to
do exactly as he did – factually point out what is wrong and then do nothing
other than try to balance the aspirations of the main contenders for ANC
presidency, without also upsetting the incumbent.
Think carefully about what Gigaba
was attempting to juggle – Zuma might, God forbid, still be President, and he desperately
needs nuclear, so Gigaba gives credibility to the nuclear deal with a caveat
that it must be affordable, so it was a yes/no commitment.
Dlamini-Zuma promotes
non-specific “radical economic transformation” which was given significant traction
in the speech, as was Ramaphosa’s “inclusive development” philosophy. Gigaba
managed to blend both into being the best way forward – essentially saying we need to radically transform, but we can’t
do it alone and need the private sector to drive it - so another yes/no, or
no/yes commitment depending upon which way your own perception mop flops.
When, in this same
government/business section of his speech Gigaba alluded to “unity” being vital
to the way forward, was he referring to public/private co-operation, or was he just
opening the door to a future under Zweli Mkhize should he prevail as the ANC’s “unity”
candidate in December. Listen carefully to what Gigaba says on the unity issue
and how he says it - I have my interpretation, but you might think differently.
Gigaba used a lot of words that
alluded to much but promised nothing in a speech that was carefully crafted to
protect his own position, obliquely confirming that the internal war raging
within the ANC is far from being a fait accompli for any faction. But what does
it tell us about Gigaba himself? Is he just another avaricious politician
taking the gap, or has he realised the error of his previous ways? As a
political cynic I am biased, but even so there is no doubt that Gigaba is an
intelligent and articulate politician who could make a positive contribution to
the country if he chooses the right path to follow. In this respect were his closing
references to predecessors Pravin Gordhan and Trevor Manuel a genuine acclamation
of their contributions, or a reminder that they are now history?
As is usual when personal or
party politics comes before the people, there is nothing encouraging to be
found in the speech. In fact, it has created a level of short-term financial
uncertainty that will no doubt result in ratings agency downgrades that will be
disastrous for all of us, and devastating for the poorest of us. Meanwhile we
are left guessing as to what more damage might be done in the February 2018
budget.
Another disheartening event occurred
before Gigaba had a chance to open his mouth. The EFF walked out - again! When will the EFF and their supporters learn
that parliament is not a kindergarten sandpit? They have a responsibility to
participate, not just walk away when the going might get tough. They must not
only question the personal integrity of Ministers, but also learn to question
the integrity of Ministerial policies – they can’t do that if they are not
there to listen. The EFF obviously has no imagination, no vision, and no
workable alternative proposals, so their standard fall-back position is to grandstand
their exit from legitimate proceedings.
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